November outlook: Here's when winter could make its big comeback in Quebec
A gradual shift towards colder temperatures will take shape in the second half of November.
Mild pattern
In November, Quebec takes a turn towards winter. Towards the end of the month, the temperature even plummets in the southern parts of the province.
The daytime average approaches the freezing point, which opens the door to snow. This year, the month is likely to unfold in two parts. The first part would be largely dominated by mild weather. With such a strong atmospheric pattern anticipated by the models, sustained bouts of mildness could cause the temperature to climb to 15°C, or even 20°C in places.
“Like the last two months, mild weather will prevail over cold weather for the first part of November,” explains meteorologist Réjean Ouimet. "Atmospheric circulation will further promote a flow of mild air over Quebec. This contribution of mild air will be amplified by the track of low pressure systems that will initially track through the Great Lakes to the west of our regions."
Discreet cold
The first part of November would take place, overall, under the influence of a mild pattern. In fact, for a large part of the North American continent, temperatures would be mostly above normal. This does not mean, however, that the temperatures will never drop during this period. However, these episodes will be brief.
“Conversely, cold spells will be more occasional,” estimates Réjean Ouimet. "They will be short-lived: 24 to 36 hours of cold and then we return back to a mild pattern."
Turning to winter
During the second half of November, a gradual shift towards colder temperatures is taking shape. After an initial period marked by mild temperatures, the famous transition period should finally appear. However, we should not expect winter to take off like a lion.
“A realignment of atmospheric forces will plunge Quebec into a transition mode,” continues Réjean Ouimet.
“Temperature fluctuations will become more frequent. It's hard to say how long this period will last, except that the end of the month will be more marked by colder weather. Not to mention constant cold spells, the possibility of a thaw will be slimmer.”
Feeling cold
The real winter cold will be slow to manifest itself in a lasting way, but the impression of a change of season should be felt. In fact, the change in pattern risks suggesting that winter conditions are settling in Quebec.
Moreover, let us mention that, since 2010, November has been mild. During nine of the fourteen months, at least one maximum of 20 °C or more has been recorded. Once again this year, such a feat is possible. This event could therefore amplify the contrast effect.
“If the second half of November is normal, the contrast with the first half of the month will be greater than normal,” says Réjean Ouimet. “So the impression of a shift towards winter will dominate.”
This article was translated from MétéoMédia, The Weather Network’s Quebec-based sister station.
